Betfair Race Trading: Pt 4. Laying, Backing And Dutching. Pots Of Gold Or Pots Of Pain.


A lot of latest clients to Betfair are attracted with the aid of the chance of a new fashion of guess; specifically, “Laying”, that’s being allowed to back the loser of your preferred sport or event.

In relation to horse racing, that is called “Laying” a horse i.E. Backing it to lose the race.

Laying a horse to lose is successfully the direct contrary of backing it to win.

It has simply constantly been viable to do that thru a traditional bookmakers via backing each horse in the race to win the use of a “Dutching” mechanism, besides of path the pony that you need to lose.

The end result being, that whichever horse wins the race, as lengthy because it isn’t always the one you chose as the one you need to lose, you may make a fixed quantity of income.

To do this in a actual lifestyles situation in a bookmakers as the horses are on the post, you need to be a mathematical savant or a few other shape of genius, and you may additionally get a as an alternative peculiar look from the workforce at Ladbrokes.

The Betfair computers take all the aggro out of “Laying” your choice. They do all of the math and gift you with a unmarried decimal ordinary for laying your selection.

Laying horses may be attractive and worthwhile to seasoned experts who attend race meets and may visibly see a horse at once earlier than a race.

Satellite Information Services are available for people with an huge budget, but nevertheless, they may no longer consciousness without delay on the pony you are interested in so may not give you any actual clues pre race.

Let me provide an explanation for the trouble with “Laying” the use of an analogy.
You have a favourite at three/1 on your Maiden Handicap at Chepstow, the sphere is huge, 12 riders and there are three or four strong contenders on this race all bunched at round 4’s and five’s

This is a horrible race to try to lay pick and I will give an explanation for why.

The professional lay punter will go to the paddock 15 minutes earlier than the race simply because the horses are taking place and will see that the favorite in this race is in fact very nervy, the eyes are jumping, the sweat has become white foam, the top is down and he refuses to canter or gallop.

Meanwhile the other 3 contenders are lightly sweating with a smooth shiny coat and brilliant constant eyes. They are cantering and galloping round with their heads and ears pricked up.

A expert punter now has approximately 2 mins to cellphone Betfair or use his wireless laptop and get a big lay on the “out-of-kinds” favored earlier than the interest punters, the on route bookies and TV cameras capture on, and the price on this horse starts drifting, first with the on direction bookies, then Betfair and then the net bookies.

This is what you are up towards trying to outwit the experts, the bookies, the market and Betfair. It may be carried out, however please heed my words of caution.

Without seeing the runners and riders before this race, it would be not possible to say with any truth which of the essential contenders is going to win and that allows you to lose, and the primary problem with laying is the great value of purchasing the rest of the field have to your lay choice move on to win.

Always take into account the contrast with Dutching in which you are making a bet on every other horse within the race to win with wagers that return an same amount whichever horse wins.

In other phrases, ought to the horse you not noted of the Dutch win you need to pay for every different horse within the race.

Also and this is a completely serious point that many punters laying on Betfair are totally missing.

Betfair vaunts a lot of its achievement on its potential to provide punters with better odds than they will get to “Back” events with conventional bookmakers, and this they invariably attain.

But as I actually have mentioned in article three, due to the better lower back fees and the marketplace “Spread” the lay prices are in truth a long way worse than what you will get if a traditional bookies offered the choice to lay horses.

To again this up shall we examine the fiscals:

Let’s say, the fave in our maiden at Chepstow is at three/1 on direction. Betfair uses decimal odds to facilitate the Stock Market style buying and selling and hedging that enables make it so popular. To get the decimal odds add 1 after which 0.Five (for the favourite).

The odds are better on Betfair as the bookies cannot element their “cut” or “over spherical” into the chances. The fees do replicate the Bookmakers charges, however are extra lenient as we are betting towards different punters, now not the bookies.

Betfair just takes a five% commission from winnings and this percentage honestly diminishes the greater bets you location.

So the favorite can be at around 4.Five to returned on Betfair in this example.

However to “Lay” the horse there is what’s called a “unfold” in Stock Market terminology.

The difference between buying and promoting a share equates to the distinction between backing and laying a horse as detailed in Part 3 of this series.

It is always more pricey to put a horse than to again it, this needs to be in any other case the book would not add up. So the lay price of a favourite at conventional three/1 can be round four.7 decimal.

If you lay this horse to lose for £1 at four.7 and it does lose, you stand to make £1 minus Betfair commission of 5% so that you get your £1 stake back and a profit of 95p. All very good.

However, if perchance the contenders do now not carry out, your horse unexpectedly wakes up and goes on to win, then you have to pay for each other horse in the race that lost. So your loss could be your £1 stake * 4.7 = £four.70

So let us examine this records from some other perspective; it can be stated that you are going to want 5 of the above type of lays to make enough profit to pay for 1 race in which the horse you laid goes directly to win i.E. A losing guess.

And, this situation is laying the favourite at the bottom odds of all the horses inside the race.

Just to hammer the nails into the coffin of your “Lay” approach, study the “Fate of the favourites” as exact through Adrian Masseys’ incredible loose useful resource which information and analyzes the results of UK horse racing over the past 15 years. Http://www.AdrianMassey.Com.

It can be seen that across all flat races 33% of favourites pass directly to win their races with the determine for flat handicaps at 25% Favourites win their races in 38% of National Hunt races with the determine for Handicap hurdles at 30%.

Averaging those figures let’s imagine that about 1 in 3 races are received by way of favourites. Yet we’d need to put 5 favourites to lose at three/1 to make a income.

Are you that good at recognizing vulnerable favourites??

This is the truth of laying horses at the having a bet exchanges.

You are ticking alongside properly……bam! Just one anticipated loser wins and you are again to square one.

And I can inform you it is greater than just deeply annoying.

This is one area of the use of Betfair that is typically passed over in the “Pot of Gold” manuals.

The amount of intellectual strength and tension that you may burn up on the Betting Exchanges is magnificent and truly is some thing that ought to be factored in with the aid of all and sundry considering the use of Betfair to make extreme cash.

Picking horses to win or lose is mentally draining.

The research, the take a look at, the angst, the mental debate and arithmetic required to select a horse to win or lose with any degree of certainty, and comply with it through the stalls spherical the path and via to the finish will go away many punters thoroughly tired after a few races, after which to look all of it thrown away on the closing race of the day can be totally soul destroying.

Obviously the same scenario with a very last race victory may be thoroughly enjoyable. But in either situation DO NOT underestimate the quantity of mental work, tension and strain concerned in making a dwelling from Betfair.

In Part five I will communicate more approximately “Laying, Backing and Dutching” horses and will display some more first rate sources with a purpose to help you in your manner to Betting Exchange achievement.

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